We've spent too long at the End of History
I agree with your arguments, but I would argue that the focus should be broader. AI requires careful consideration, which likely won't happen.
I'm also concerned about the false sense of security entertained by the West since the end of WWII...the idea that we were done with hot (and cold) wars.
Even with a proxy war in Ukraine, and cold wars with China and Iran (and whatever it is that's happening with Mexico), there's no discernible change in attitudes or behaviors throughout most of the West, but especially in the US.
Ditto climate change, democratic rule, etc.
Will AI fix any existing problems or just distract attention (and money) from solutions?
We seem like children who play with a toy until it breaks or we're bored, then move to the next one.
Good piece, Nick. I particularly appreciate you pasting in Hans Bethe's account of what happened – I hadn't come across it before. Illuminating, changes my priors on AI risk slightly. Thanks...